THR Interactive Modeling Portal

Explore individual and country-level impacts of quitting, switching, and 21st-century interventions to 2060.

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Individual Impact Explorer

Cigarettes per day 20

Years smoked 20

Current age 40

Pack-years

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Baseline life-years lost (est.)

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Life lost by cigarettes consumed

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If you quit completely now

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If you switch fully to low-risk nicotine now

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Baseline LYL at 40 pack-years

= 10 years

Regain fraction if quit now

60%

Regain fraction if switch now

50%

Minutes per cigarette: 11

References for defaults: Jha & Peto, NEJM 2014 (≈10 years lost for continuing smokers); Cochrane 2022 (e-cigs > NRT for quitting). This is an educational simplification.

Macro Scenario Explorer

Select country

THR adoption by 2060

35% of smokers switch

Cessation uplift

15% additional quit

Lung cancer screening coverage

30% of high-risk enrolled

Horizon (years)

Load WHO/GBD country data (CSV)

Header must be: name,populationM,smokingPrevM,smokingPrevF,annualSmokingDeathsK

Cumulative baseline deaths

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Total deaths averted

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THR reduction applies to switchers (e.g., vapes/HTP/snus). Cessation uplift applies to additional quitters. Screening reduces mortality among high-risk enrollees.

Global sweep (all listed countries)

Total baseline deaths

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Total deaths averted

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% avoided

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Country	Baseline deaths (cum)	Deaths averted	% avoided

Model notes & sources

Purpose: interactive sandbox to test how cessation, tobacco harm reduction (THR), and lung-cancer screening could change outcomes by 2060. Scenario explorer, not a forecast.

Individual: calibrated so ~40 pack-years ≈ 10 life-years lost; regained fractions tunable.
Macro: uses annual smoking deaths as baseline; averted deaths = cumulative baseline × (THR + cessation + screening effects).
Data schema: name,populationM,smokingPrevM,smokingPrevF,annualSmokingDeathsK.